Matchup Stats — Arkansas v. Alabama and vice versa

Certainly stats aren’t the entire story of any game because they fail to include all sorts of human factors, but tossing them out as useless is similar to saying that we shouldn’t keep score or Timmy, Timmy, Timmy Turner shouldn’t know how much of his mullah’s left while his soul’s in the furnace.  “Fire” and “want” aren’t quantifiable.

For the most part, these are here for anyone to evaluate the game on their own without guessing at things which are knowable.  The official football stats from NCAA.com for teams are hard to find on the page.  To find them you have to go to the drop down menu at the bottom of the page under “Custom Reporting,” select FBS, run a custom report, then go to one of the categories, and click on the team you want.  The categories are jumbled in some fashion that only makes sense to someone else.  After re-ordering for each team, the stats can be placed side by side in a meaningful way.

Looking at Arkansas’ and Alabama’s seasons, arguably Alabama’s schedule has been slightly more difficult than Arkansas’.

The difference really comes down to Kentucky which isn’t much. Who’s better? Texas A&M or Ole Miss?  TCU or Southern Cal.?  Louisiana Tech or Western Kentucky? Kent State or Alcorn State?  At this point in the season, if these teams played head-to-head, the point spreads would be fairly small. Maybe TCU would be favored over USC.  Maybe an A&M team would be a favorite over Ole Miss. Looking at numbers conservatively, the matchups are even. The remaining matchup Kentucky and Texas State, Kentucky would be a clear favorite simply because the Wildcats have more talent.   Scoring comparisons between Saban and Bielema coached teams are pretty fair primarily because both look to control the ball and run down the clock at the end of the game with the lead or let off the throttle when the game is in hand.  In contrast a Bobby Petrino team plays full throttle regardless of a lead.

So how does Arkansas stack up against Alabama? Sort the tables as you like.  It’s frequently helpful to sort by one national ranking or the other.  Alabama’s side is at the end of this post.

Arkansas’ Offense v. Alabama’s Defense

With the sole exception of Arkansas’ Team Passing Efficiency v. Alabama’ Team Passing Efficiency Defense, category by category Alabama’s defense bests Arkansas’ offense in stats allowed v. stats earned in both value and rank.  The greatest differences are in Total Offense/Defense and Rushing Offense/Defense.  While Arkansas’ offense is in the middle of the pack, Bama’s defense is in the top 10 in both categories.  If the numbers tell as story about how Alabama will play, they suggest that Alabama’s style will be to keep the Hogs in front of them anticipating that they can stop Arkansas’ run offense and cause enough disruption of the quarterback with three defensive linemen.  Even if they show more on the defensive line, someone will be dropping back in coverage.

Arkansas’ Defense v. Alabama’s Offense

The Razorbacks’ Defense fairs slightly better against Alabama’s Offense but hardly in areas where it matters most, Scoring, Rushing and 3rd Down Conversions.

Arkansas’ Special Teams v. Alabama’s Special Teams

On Special Teams, Arkansas holds abysmal rankings in all of D-I football in kickoff returns, kickoff return defense and punt return defense.  Special teams are dangerously fickle, and the Hogs can ill-afford to give up any points or long returns on Special Teams.  If the trends hold, it could be a problem Saturday.

Arkansas’ Turnovers & Takeaways v. Alabama’s Takeaways & Turnovers

Turnovers can be game changers.  The Razorbacks appear to hold some advantages here.

If there’s any weak link it’s in the inconsistency of a true freshman quarterback in Alabama’s Jalen Hurts.  He’s a prototypical Alabama quarterback throwing the ball but is the Tide’s second leading rusher.  That’s their biggest weakness.  One shot on an open quarterback leaves the Tide with a second 1st year quarterback in Blake Barnett whose experience consists of mop up duty versus USC, Western Kentucky and Kent State. Lane Kiffin won’t resist the taking long shots down the field and shouldn’t.  Arkansas’ defensive line must step up because they’ll have their opportunities to get to Hurts.

Offensively, the Razorbacks must avoid 3rd down situations against Alabama.  Those “must convert” situations which the Hogs have made good on are not as likely to work against Alabama, and this isn’t a game where winning the time of possession helps the Razorbacks.  The Hogs need to score as quickly as possible and need to convert on every trip into the red zone which has been problematic this year against lesser opponents.

If the Razorbacks can rattle the Tide’s quarterback, have an offensive scheme that works (trap blocking to free runners & using tight end size advantage) and avoid Special Teams disasters, a win isn’t out of reach.  It all comes down to:

Hit that line! Hit that line!
Keep on going!
Take that ball right
down the field!
Give a cheer. Rah! Rah!
Never fear. Rah! Rah!
Arkansas will never yield!

On your toes, Razorbacks,
to the finish,
Carry on with all your might!
For it’s A-A-A-R-K-A-N-S-A-S
for Arkansas!
Fight! Fight! Fi-i-i-ight!

We’d be remiss if we weren’t fair and balanced and include Alabama Fight Song “Yea Alabama” – Shirley Q Liquor.  — Sharp

This is how things look from Alabama’s side.

Alabama’s Offense v. Arkansas’ Defense

Alabama’s Defense v. Arkansas’ Offense

Alabama’s Special Teams v. Arkansas’ Special Teams

Alabama’s Turnovers & Takeaways v. Arkansas’  Takeaways & Turnovers