Clearly I would feel better about this if Alabama and Auburn switched places and Michigan State and Ohio State switched places. Maybe I can work the math and analysis to figure out a way to do so next season at the upper levels. Looking at it another way, at least you can be certain that I don’t dicker with the results and take them as they are. Oklahoma did vault above Oklahoma State, so all is not lost. The problem that needs to be solved is how to treat losses. In 2011, the CFCI treated losses far more harshly than any voters or polls did, so the math was created to spread the loss over the season instead of all at once. It’s coping mathematically with the idea that losses aren’t “one size fits all.” To some degree, they aren’t “one size fits all” now. Northern Illinois’ loss really hit the Huskies harder than any other team this week and rightfully so. The solution could go in any number of directions.
As is, with the top four being Florida State, Alabama, Ohio State and Auburn in the CFCI, it’s not terrible based on a season of play. Michigan State probably deserves the nod over Ohio State in the top 4. On the other hand, I’m not sure that Auburn would beat Alabama two out of three times so Alabama’s No. 2 ranking isn’t so offensive.
Nonetheless, the CFCI has tracked Michigan State higher than the vast majority of computer systems in the Massey Composite Rankings for weeks, and the Spartans finally proved it. In 2011, the CFCI did the same with Kansas State in advance by weeks.
Overall, this season has been a step in the right direction of being able to look at teams without regard to strength of schedule or conference affiliation.
Comparison to BCS Polls
vs. BCS Standings # Included
USA Today Coaches' 24
Richard Billingsley 24
Jeff Sagarin Pure Elo 24
Harris Poll 24
Colley Matrix 24
Peter Wolfe 23
C.F.C.I. 22
Anderson & Hester 22
Ken Massey 21
Overall, the CFCI holds its own including 22 of the BCS Top 25. With modification of a single number in the calculation discovered last week, that number would rise to 23 as it will pull Arizona State into the CFCI Top 25 and increase the accuracy. That modification is below. None of the human or computer polls included all 25 of the final BCS Poll.
As always, it is an honor for the College Football Champion Index to be included in BCS Computer Guru Ken Massey’s College Football Ranking Composite.
College Football Champion Index Week 15
+/- Wk. 14 Rank Wk. 15 Rank Team CFCI Wk. 15 CFCI Wk. 14 +/-
0 1 1 Florida St. 0.9864 0.9856 0.0008
1 3 2 Alabama 0.8325 0.8231 0.0094
-1 2 3 Ohio St. 0.7651 0.9114 -0.1463
0 4 4 Auburn 0.7347 0.74 -0.0053
1 6 5 Michigan St. 0.6916 0.6915 1E-04
1 7 6 Louisville 0.686 0.6876 -0.0016
1 8 7 Clemson 0.6857 0.6746 0.0111
1 9 8 Oregon 0.6833 0.6722 0.0111
3 12 9 Baylor 0.6232 0.6119 0.0113
3 13 10 UCF 0.5783 0.5805 -0.0022
3 14 11 Georgia 0.5661 0.5549 0.0112
6 18 12 South Carolina 0.553 0.5371 0.0159
3 16 13 Stanford 0.5517 0.5486 0.0031
3 17 14 Texas A&M 0.5495 0.539 0.0105
0 15 15 Oklahoma 0.5447 0.5498 -0.0051
-11 5 16 Northern Ill. 0.5274 0.7035 -0.1761
3 20 17 Fresno St. 0.5176 0.5141 0.0035
-8 10 18 Oklahoma St. 0.5098 0.6256 -0.1158
-8 11 19 Missouri 0.4781 0.6136 -0.1355
2 22 20 Wisconsin 0.4774 0.46 0.0174
2 23 21 LSU 0.4683 0.4512 0.0171
5 27 22 UCLA 0.447 0.4307 0.0163
6 29 23 Miami (FL) 0.4318 0.4161 0.0157
4 28 24 Ball St. 0.4287 0.4164 0.0123
-6 19 25 Cincinnati 0.4265 0.5163 -0.0898
0 26 26 Bowling Green 0.4252 0.4316 -0.0064
-6 21 27 Arizona St. 0.4063 0.4935 -0.0872
4 32 28 Virginia Tech 0.3882 0.3719 0.0163
5 34 29 Washington 0.3847 0.3686 0.0161
5 35 30 East Carolina 0.3775 0.3637 0.0138
5 36 31 Southern California 0.3772 0.3608 0.0164
5 37 32 Iowa 0.3736 0.3579 0.0157
5 38 33 Nebraska 0.3732 0.3575 0.0157
-1 33 34 Rice 0.3732 0.3715 0.0017
-11 24 35 Texas 0.3708 0.4388 -0.068
4 40 36 Notre Dame 0.3648 0.3495 0.0153
-12 25 37 Duke 0.3486 0.4321 -0.0835
3 41 38 BYU 0.3431 0.3287 0.0144
3 42 39 North Texas 0.3417 0.3274 0.0143
3 43 40 Western Ky. 0.3387 0.3245 0.0142
-11 30 41 Marshall 0.3379 0.3998 -0.0619
2 44 42 Minnesota 0.3343 0.3203 0.014
2 45 43 Boise St. 0.3326 0.3186 0.014
2 46 44 Michigan 0.3295 0.3143 0.0152
2 47 45 Penn St. 0.3257 0.3106 0.0151
-15 31 46 La.-Lafayette 0.3246 0.378 -0.0534
1 48 47 Navy 0.3229 0.3099 0.013
1 49 48 Buffalo 0.3215 0.308 0.0135
2 51 49 Ole Miss 0.3208 0.306 0.0148
0 50 50 Vanderbilt 0.3204 0.3069 0.0135
1 52 51 Houston 0.3173 0.304 0.0133
1 53 52 Georgia Tech 0.3162 0.3016 0.0146
1 54 53 Middle Tenn. 0.3107 0.2977 0.013
1 55 54 Kansas St. 0.3026 0.2886 0.014
-16 39 55 Utah St. 0.302 0.3541 -0.0521
0 56 56 Maryland 0.2982 0.2844 0.0138
0 57 57 Arizona 0.2954 0.2817 0.0137
0 58 58 Texas Tech 0.2902 0.2768 0.0134
0 59 59 North Carolina 0.2857 0.2716 0.0141
0 60 60 Boston College 0.2796 0.2667 0.0129
1 62 61 Mississippi St. 0.2748 0.2612 0.0136
-1 61 62 Arkansas St. 0.274 0.2614 0.0126
0 63 63 Tulane 0.2722 0.2596 0.0126
0 64 64 Toledo 0.2715 0.259 0.0125
0 65 65 UTSA 0.2704 0.258 0.0124
0 66 66 UNLV 0.2679 0.2555 0.0124
0 67 67 Fla. Atlantic 0.267 0.2541 0.0129
0 68 68 Ohio 0.2617 0.2496 0.0121
0 69 69 San Diego St. 0.2604 0.2484 0.012
0 70 70 Pittsburgh 0.2596 0.2468 0.0128
0 71 71 Rutgers 0.249 0.2406 0.0084
2 74 72 Florida 0.248 0.2346 0.0134
0 73 73 Syracuse 0.2475 0.2353 0.0122
1 75 74 Tennessee 0.2466 0.2337 0.0129
-3 72 75 South Ala. 0.2451 0.2404 0.0047
0 76 76 Colorado St. 0.2356 0.2236 0.012
0 77 77 Oregon St. 0.2352 0.2236 0.0116
0 78 78 Texas St. 0.2318 0.2203 0.0115
0 79 79 Utah 0.2305 0.2185 0.012
1 81 80 San Jose St. 0.2247 0.2136 0.0111
1 82 81 Troy 0.2216 0.2107 0.0109
1 83 82 Central Mich. 0.221 0.21 0.011
1 84 83 Northwestern 0.2146 0.2034 0.0112
1 85 84 La.-Monroe 0.212 0.2015 0.0105
2 87 85 Indiana 0.207 0.1963 0.0107
3 89 86 TCU 0.2067 0.1955 0.0112
1 88 87 Washington St. 0.2059 0.1957 0.0102
2 90 88 Wyoming 0.2023 0.1917 0.0106
2 91 89 Army 0.1962 0.1858 0.0104
2 92 90 Akron 0.1959 0.1856 0.0103
-11 80 91 SMU 0.1945 0.215 -0.0205
1 93 92 West Virginia 0.1938 0.1833 0.0105
1 94 93 Illinois 0.1905 0.1802 0.0103
1 95 94 Arkansas 0.1903 0.1796 0.0107
1 96 95 Kent St. 0.1892 0.1789 0.0103
1 97 96 Louisiana Tech 0.1836 0.1737 0.0099
1 98 97 North Carolina St. 0.1835 0.1732 0.0103
1 99 98 Colorado 0.1811 0.1713 0.0098
1 100 99 Nevada 0.1797 0.1699 0.0098
1 101 100 Wake Forest 0.1795 0.1697 0.0098
-15 86 101 Memphis 0.1762 0.1994 -0.0232
1 103 102 New Mexico 0.1635 0.1544 0.0091
1 104 103 Virginia 0.1634 0.1539 0.0095
2 106 104 Iowa St. 0.1625 0.1534 0.0091
2 107 105 Tulsa 0.1624 0.1533 0.0091
2 108 106 Kansas 0.16 0.151 0.009
-2 105 107 UConn 0.1598 0.1537 0.0061
1 109 108 Kentucky 0.1568 0.1478 0.009
-7 102 109 South Fla. 0.1533 0.169 -0.0157
0 110 110 Temple 0.1494 0.1408 0.0086
0 111 111 Air Force 0.1487 0.1401 0.0086
0 112 112 California 0.1487 0.1399 0.0088
0 113 113 UTEP 0.1472 0.1387 0.0085
0 114 114 UAB 0.1446 0.1363 0.0083
0 115 115 New Mexico St. 0.1356 0.1275 0.0081
0 116 116 Western Mich. 0.1336 0.1258 0.0078
0 117 117 Eastern Mich. 0.1328 0.1251 0.0077
0 118 118 Hawaii 0.1312 0.1235 0.0077
0 119 119 Southern Miss. 0.1245 0.1172 0.0073
0 120 120 Massachusetts 0.124 0.1167 0.0073
0 121 121 Purdue 0.1213 0.1142 0.0071
0 122 122 Idaho 0.1188 0.1118 0.007
1 124 123 Georgia St. 0.1157 0.1087 0.007
After an old friend from my Sportingnews.com days pointed out that the CFCI slighted his Arizona St. Sun Devils all season, I looked at the stats and the calculation to see if I was missing some evaluation that should be made. Adjusting a single number that acts as a threshold for calculating how high offensive point totals will be treated for each team, the result was better at this time in the season. Actually it makes perfect sense to have this particular threshold higher at the beginning of the season and lower at the end of the season because on-the-field performance should take over.
Using this calculation 10 teams in the CFCI would be ranked two places from their BCS Poll rankings and 13 would be within 3 places of their BCS rankings.
CFCI with Modified Threshold
Wk. 15 Rank Team CFCI Wk. 15
1 Florida St. 0.9864
2 Alabama 0.8325
3 Ohio St. 0.7651
4 Auburn 0.7347
5 Michigan St. 0.6916
6 Louisville 0.686
7 Clemson 0.6857
8 Oregon 0.6833
9 Oklahoma St. 0.6569
10 Missouri 0.6347
11 Baylor 0.6232
12 Arizona St. 0.5844
13 UCF 0.5783
14 Washington 0.5693
15 Georgia 0.5661
16 South Carolina 0.553
17 Stanford 0.5517
18 Texas A&M 0.5495
19 Oklahoma 0.5447
20 Northern Ill. 0.5274
21 Fresno St. 0.5176
22 Wisconsin 0.4774
23 LSU 0.4683
24 UCLA 0.447
25 Miami (FL) 0.4318
26 Ball St. 0.4287
27 Cincinnati 0.4265
28 Bowling Green 0.4252
29 Virginia Tech 0.3882
30 East Carolina 0.3775
31 Southern California 0.3772
32 Iowa 0.3736
33 Nebraska 0.3732
34 Rice 0.3732
35 Texas 0.3708
36 Notre Dame 0.3648
37 Duke 0.3486
38 BYU 0.3431
39 North Texas 0.3417
40 Western Ky. 0.3387
41 Marshall 0.3379
42 Minnesota 0.3343
43 Boise St. 0.3326
44 Michigan 0.3295
45 Penn St. 0.3257
46 La.-Lafayette 0.3246
47 Navy 0.3229
48 Buffalo 0.3215
49 Ole Miss 0.3208
50 Vanderbilt 0.3204
51 Houston 0.3173
52 Georgia Tech 0.3162
53 Middle Tenn. 0.3107
54 Kansas St. 0.3026
55 Utah St. 0.302
56 Maryland 0.2982
57 Arizona 0.2954
58 Texas Tech 0.2902
59 North Carolina 0.2857
60 Boston College 0.2796
61 Mississippi St. 0.2748
62 Arkansas St. 0.274
63 Tulane 0.2722
64 Toledo 0.2715
65 UTSA 0.2704
66 UNLV 0.2679
67 Fla. Atlantic 0.267
68 Ohio 0.2617
69 San Diego St. 0.2604
70 Pittsburgh 0.2596
71 Rutgers 0.249
72 Florida 0.248
73 Syracuse 0.2475
74 Tennessee 0.2466
75 South Ala. 0.2451
76 Colorado St. 0.2356
77 Oregon St. 0.2352
78 Texas St. 0.2318
79 Utah 0.2305
80 San Jose St. 0.2247
81 Troy 0.2216
82 Central Mich. 0.221
83 Northwestern 0.2146
84 La.-Monroe 0.212
85 Indiana 0.207
86 TCU 0.2067
87 Washington St. 0.2059
88 Wyoming 0.2023
89 Army 0.1962
90 Akron 0.1959
91 SMU 0.1945
92 West Virginia 0.1938
93 Illinois 0.1905
94 Arkansas 0.1903
95 Kent St. 0.1892
96 Louisiana Tech 0.1836
97 North Carolina St. 0.1835
98 Colorado 0.1811
99 Nevada 0.1797
100 Wake Forest 0.1795
101 Memphis 0.1762
102 New Mexico 0.1635
103 Virginia 0.1634
104 Iowa St. 0.1625
105 Tulsa 0.1624
106 Kansas 0.16
107 UConn 0.1598
108 Kentucky 0.1568
109 South Fla. 0.1533
110 Temple 0.1494
111 Air Force 0.1487
112 California 0.1487
113 UTEP 0.1472
114 UAB 0.1446
115 New Mexico St. 0.1356
116 Western Mich. 0.1336
117 Eastern Mich. 0.1328
118 Hawaii 0.1312
119 Southern Miss. 0.1245
120 Massachusetts 0.124
121 Purdue 0.1213
122 Idaho 0.1188
123 Georgia St. 0.1157
124 FIU 0.1156
125 Miami (OH) 0.1041
A brief explanation of the College Football Champion Index
The CFCI is obviously not like other polls or computers. It’s based upon a series of posts which define objective, static, statistical standards of BCS Champions over the course of a season, recruiting strength over four classes, and lastly wins and losses. The College Football Champion Index has as a premise that if a fan looks at a team correctly, that a team is not defined by their opponents or conference. As such, there is no consideration for strength of schedule or conference.
While wins or loses are hugely important (no team has been a BCS Champion with more than 2 losses since 2000), a team’s performance in any given week can cause its score (and ranking) to go down. Unlike most polls, the CFCI is defensive-oriented because those are team stats most consistent with BCS Champions.
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