The Return of the College Football Champion Index

After I began the College Football Champion Index in 2011, life was such that I simply couldn’t devote the time to it during the 2012 season. It’s an experiment whose time came a long time ago, and one which simply couldn’t stay shelved.

The truth is that the best teams in college football have certain characteristics which the CFCI attempts to boil down into one composite number, the College Football Champion Index Value, which is completely independent of any reliance on strength of schedule. Although the 2013 version is very similar to the 2011 version, the statistical profile of a BCS Champion has been updated through 2012 and a months-long effort regarding recruiting at the beginning of 2012 is added to the computation this season. In addition to giving weight to 17 statistical categories to create a large part of the CFCI, when recruiting composite scores for Rivals and Scout were considered for BCS Champions, recruiting scores above a certain level were so consistent with BCS Champions, that only Scoring Defense was slightly more consistent with BCS Champions.*

Because the CFCI relies on data, teams must create data before the Index starts to be accurate. In other words, the CFCI should come into its own hopefully a few weeks into the season. At least 8 DI teams haven’t played a down yet, so they aren’t ranked in Week 1, and then some teams turned up goose eggs in some categories but not because games were going poorly for them. Some logged no punts or had no sacks, so they don’t have values for those components of their calculations, and it hurts the teams’ numbers this week.

As the season progresses though, the recruiting component should differentiate some mid majors with crazy stats versus some solid major conference schools. In 2011, the CFCI ranked Houston toward the top for much of the last of the season before a late season loss took care of some of their ranking for the CFCI. It’s hard to put a team like the Cougars up with LSU and Alabama. Without resorting to strength of schedule, the recruiting component could take care of that issue.

Not all seemingly odd numbers from the CFCI are out of the stadium parking lot. In fact, the CFCI can identify up and coming teams before public perception catches up. In 2011, Kansas St. was a great example of the idea. Two weeks before K St. found its way into the BCS conversation, the CFCI homed in on the Wildcats’ BCS Champion-like profile. On the other side, the CFCI can expose pretenders as the season goes along.

For Week 1, the NCAA only published the data through August 31, 2013, so Louisville’s 49-7 thumping of Ohio, Colorado’s 41-27 win over Colorado St., and the Florida St./Pitt matchup today will be included in stats next week.

The Tennessee Volunteers turned in the most BCS Champion-like performance beating Austin Peay 45-0. The only areas where they didn’t turn in the performance were in low categories of punt returns and passing offense in the first game of the Butch Jones era.

The Oregon Ducks crushed Nicholls 66-3 in their season opener but statistically, the only chinks in Oregon’s armor were in passing defense and punt returns while David Cutcliffe’s Duke Blue Devils feasted on its cupcake, NC Central, to a sweet 45-0 victory. The Baylor Bears mauled Wofford 69-3, and North Texas handled Idaho 40-6. Bowling Green was the highest rated team against a 2012 bowl opponent in its 34-7 drubbing of Tulsa.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Through the CFCI’s lens, the Hogs did very well in their first outing against a team that’s been to two consecutive bowl games. Allowing 14 points is right at the BCS composite standard while 34 points scored was very close. Brandon Allen, with help from the receivers and backs, blistered the pass efficiency rating with a 192.26 score, more than forty points higher than the gold standard. The Hogs didn’t fair badly in pass defense, allowing Louisiana-Layfayette only 189 yards through the air. The BCS Champion standard over a season allows 182 yards per game. Better yet, the 85 yards allowed to the Rajun Cajuns’ rushing game beat the BCS Champ standard by 10 yards. In category after category, save punt returns, which is typical this early in the season, the Razorbacks performed as they need to perform to do well throughout the season.

It’s good to be back. 😀

College Football Champion Index Week 1

** Data is based upon years back to 2000 for most categories.

*There will be challenges this season to have the CFCI published consistently. The NCAA has changed the presentation of its statistical data from web tables to a flash format which prevent auto-loading of data into a spreadsheet. Although overall the new statistical format has potential for providing the public with a great insight, for some silly lack of a reason all the statistical categories leave out WINS AND LOSSES leaving some additional gymnastics in working those into the computation.