Football Teaser — Arkansas Straight Up Against No. 1 Florida!

ONLY 173 DAYS ‘TIL RAZORBACK FOOTBALL BEGINS FOR THE 2010 SEASON!

This pre-Florida game post was likely one of the reasons why Jacob asked me to post on HOG DATABASE. You’ll see what I mean below…not the short version which is for Fans whose Football interest won’t overcome rampant ADD. Go a little further!

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At the outset, this isn’t a gaming post and don’t forget to add your FAVORITE GATOR recipes Here !

The numbers evidence a disparity between people’s perceptions of this game and what’s happened in actual games this season, in particular, the improvement the Razorbacks have shown over the last three weeks.

For this entry, I won’t beat around the bush.

Here’s why this matchup is much closer, if not EQUAL.

1. As close to a fact as it can be, Arkansas’ performances have been against a strength of schedule equal to or tougher than Florida’s. I detail the particulars below.

2. Can Arkansas score on Florida’s touted defense? Let’s look at a number of different angles:

A. When Mallett has time to throw, Arkansas will move the ball.

Florida’s touted defense has logged ONLY TWO MORE SACKS THAN Arkansas‘s opponents have against Arkansas.

The point is that Florida may not get to Mallett more often than he’s used to.

Even then, since the Alabama game, Mallett has been noticeably less rattled when hit.

Arkansas has a good chance to move the ball.

B. Is Arkansas’s rushing game better or worse than last year when Michael Smith rushed for 133 yards against the same Florida defense?

Arkansas’s offensive line may not be as strong at run blocking than Hog Fans are traditionally used to, but Arkansas’s passing game is immensely better. Either can open up the other.

Arkansas has more backs than Smith. Wingo and Green are improving and will keep Smith fresher.

Tennessee ran for 117 yards against Florida’s defense earlier this year.

Arkansas can do it better.

C. On his radio show last night Bobby Petrino said, “We moved the ball on Florida last year but couldn’t punch it in.”  Wasn’t that how it was?

Arkansas is 20 for 20 in Scoring in the Red Zone Offense. Arkansas is much better able to punch the ball in this year.

D. Offense to offense Arkansas scores more points. Last time I checked, you win when you score more points.

3. The next big question is whether the Hogs’ Defense can stop Florida’s offense.

A. Florida’s offensive strength has been the running game averaging 209 yards rushing per game over the last 4 games. Is 209 yards per game REALLY THAT GREAT? Didn’t McFadden average that much by himself? Keep in mind that this is against a schedule weaker than the Hogs’.

B. The Hogs’ Defense is immensely better against the run than it was earlier in the year. Tackling and swarming are better. Arkansas’s TACKLES FOR A LOSS continue to lead in the SEC.

This isn’t sacks. It’s run stuffing and screen/shuffle pass stuffing. When Tebow goes left or right, that’s what he’ll meet.

C. So what, SharpTusk, Florida will go over the top.

Over the last 4 games, including too close for comfort games at Tennessee (115 yds. passing) and LSU (134 yards passing), Florida only averages 112 yards passing per game. That’s jump passes, catch and run, etc.

I don’t buy any argument that Florida was holding back against LSU or Tennessee when the games weren’t certain.

The point here is that Florida’s strength will meet head-on with Arkansas’s defensive strength. It’s weakness will meet with Arkansas’s weakness.

Arkansas’s Defense matches up with Florida’s offense.

4. Although Arkansas’s punt coverage team needs to step it up, differences in Special Teams are negligible.

The Details are below. Thanks Guys.

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What chance do you give the Arkansas Razorbacks to beat the Florida Gators straight up? Probably a snowball’s chance in Hell, right?

The Bookmakers and You wouldn’t be alone. History and recent history would be on your side.

Regular Season Series Results since 1993
……Arkansas.Florida..Margin
1996………07………42………35
1997………07………56………49
2003………28………33………05
2004………30……….45………15
2008………07………38………31
Avg……….16………43………27

Year…FL..OPP……………..Margin
2008…63…05……..KY………58
2008…56…06……..So.Car…50
2008…49…10……..GA………39
2008…38…07……..Ark.…….31
2008…51…21……..LSU…….30
2008…42…14……..Vandy….28

Florida’s averaged a 27 point margin of victory against Arkansas in regular season games. They beat the Hogs by 31 points last year with nearly an identical team. And too, Florida’s had its share of 25 points or better margins of victory in 2008. J. Howell’s College Football power ratings predict the Gators as 27.5 point favorites with Florida’s odds of winning straight up at 85%.

The Florida Gators aren’t as good as they were last year.

Really though, I must be a crazy Hog Fan in Denial!

I’ve followed J. Howell’s power ratings for the last couple of years and respect them. To be honest, I used his numbers to help identify the greatest disparities between offenses and defenses in last year’s Sportingnews.com College Football Fantasy Game where my only team ended up in the top 1% of some 15,000 teams. One particular evaluation of his has significance.

…………………………..Arkansas….Florida
Power Rank…………………45………. 1
Power Rating………………0.611…….0.88
PreSeason Rating…………0.589…….0.854
Season SOS………………0.658…….0.531
Year to Date SOS………..0.600……0.522

Overall, he actually rates Arkansas’s strength of schedule to-date higher than Florida’s. Certainly its arguable. Let’s throw out the first game patsies and consider the other opponents.

Arkansas………………..Florida

Georgia…………………..Troy
Alabama…………………Tennessee
Texas A&M……………. Kentucky
Auburn……………………LSU

Maybe. Just eye-ball it some. Would you rather play LSU or Alabama?

Georgia or Troy? Kentucky or Texas A&M? Auburn or Tennessee?

The proposition isn’t far-fetched. We could probably agree that they are even.

While having a nice helping of crow after the Alabama game, I mentioned that both Arkansas and I did get some things right. Razorback Fans have seen substantial improvement since the Georgia game.

It’s been my sheer speculation that Bobby Petrino has been working with the Arkansas Defense since the game with Georgia and as the Defense has become better, he’s focused more time with the Offense.

But the Razorbacks’ numbers have a familiar identifiable trend toward the numbers Bobby Petrino’s 2006 Louisville team established. The Cardinals scored 38 ppg. while giving up only 17 points per game.

I generated these “last game” averages from box scores for Arkansas and Florida. Numbers with SEC rankings are taken from the SEC’s website.

Before you take a look, what would you think would be keys to the Florida–Arkansas game?

How ‘bout these:

Over the last four games, throwing out the patsies, which team has a higher point per game average?

Passing or rushing? Which is Florida’s more prolific attack?

Which Defense, including the patsies, has logged more tackles for a loss?

Which team has more touchdowns from inside the Red Zone this year?

Ryan Mallett’s been sacked several more times than Tim Tebow, right?

Here are the stats from which I created the “last game” averages.

……………..Arkansas….Florida
……………..Offense…..Defense
………………Gains……..Allows

POINTS………..PF………PA
Last 4 Avg…….35………07
Last 3 Avg…….33………08
Last 2 Avg…….46………05

PT. MARGIN
Last 4 Avg…….03………-26
Last 3 Avg…….07………-18
Last 2 Avg…….25………-22

TOTAL YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….417……..173
Last 3 Avg…….394……..184
Last 2 Avg…….465……..171

PASS YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….286……..87
Last 3 Avg…….245……..94
Last 2 Avg…….273……..95

RUSH YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….131……..86
Last 3 Avg…….149……..90
Last 2 Avg…….192……..76

FIRST DOWNS
Last 4 Avg…….19………11
Last 3 Avg…….19………12
Last 2 Avg…….22………12

THIRD DOWN %
Last 4 Avg…….29………21
Last 3 Avg…….32………24
Last 2 Avg…….40………15

TOs
Last 4 Avg…….02………02
Last 3 Avg…….02………02
Last 2 Avg…….02………02

…………..Arkansas….Florida
……………Defense…..Offense
…………….Allows……Gains

POINTS………..PF………PA
Last 4 Avg…….32………33
Last 3 Avg…….26………26
Last 2 Avg…….21………27

PT. MARGIN
Last 4 Avg…….-3………26
Last 3 Avg…….-7………18
Last 2 Avg…….-25……..22

TOTAL YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….447………321
Last 3 Avg…….419………382
Last 2 Avg…….417………411

PASS YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….286………112
Last 3 Avg…….256………127
Last 2 Avg…….239………134

RUSH YARDS
Last 4 Avg…….161………209
Last 3 Avg…….163………254
Last 2 Avg…….178………278

FIRST DOWNS
Last 4 Avg…….20………19
Last 3 Avg…….20………22
Last 2 Avg…….22………24

THIRD DOWN %
Last 4 Avg…….37………39
Last 3 Avg…….36………47
Last 2 Avg…….34………40

TOs
Last 4 Avg…….02………02
Last 3 Avg…….02………01
Last 2 Avg…….03………01

…………..Arkansas….Florida

RED ZONE DEFENSE
SEC Rank…….01……..04
Scores………..10……..06
Att…………….15………08
Pct……………67………75
TDs……………06………02
Rush………….04………01
Pass…………..02……..01
Made………….04……..04
Att…………….04………04
Fumb…………02………00
Int…………….00………00
Downs………..03……..01

RED ZONE OFFENSE
SEC Rank………01………06
Scores…………20……….21
Att………………20……….24
Pct……………100……….88
TDs……………..14………14
Rush…………….05………09
Pass…………….09……….05
Made……………06……….07
Att………………06……….08
Fumb…………..00……….01
Int………………00……….00
Downs………….00……….01

SACKS AGAINST
SEC Rank……..08………06
No………………08………07
Yds……………..55………38

SACKS BY
SEC Rank……..09………05
No………………10………12
Yards…………..67………71

KICKOFF COVERAGE
SEC Rank……..05………01
Yds/Kick……….43………47

PUNT YARDAGE
SEC Rank……..09………04
No………………26………11
Yds/Kick……….11………36

PUNT RETURN
SEC Rank……..12………10
No………………08………14
Yds/Kick……….03………04

KICKOFF RETURNS
SEC Rank……..02………01
No………………19………11
Yds/Kick……….32………33

TACKLES FOR LOSS
Solo……………28………23
Ast……………..20………12
Yds…………..138……..128
Total…………..38………29
PG……………..7.6………06

Hey, SharpTusk, the game’s not played on paper!

True!

Problems the Razorback Defense had during the Georgia game began to be corrected at Alabama. Tackling became better and was backed up with swarming to the ball. Absent one ‘Bama run, Arkansas holds the Tide to an average of 2 yards per carry. As against The Hogs’ secondary has improved somewhat since the Georgia game. The problems with wrapping up and tackling have been much diminished. Frequently an Arkansas defender would be in the proper place but fail to do the proper things as the ball was arriving. It would be disingenuous to say that Razorbacks’ secondary wasn’t continuing to have failures where receivers are wide open. It’s not as frequent as it was. It wouldn’t have been hard to think that Auburnwould have capitalized on Razorbacks’ secondary if anyone would have.

Arkansas’s offense has improved steadily since the Georgia and Alabama games where rushing yards totaled 77 and 63 yards respectively. The Razorbacks won’t simply rely on Michael Smith for rushing although he’s still there. Three other backs will continue to provide fresh legs. As far as receivers, last year Arkansas had six guys other than Michael Smith to catch the ball. In 2009, a total of 16 players have logged a reception.

Florida’s Defense has no apparent weakness for Arkansas to exploit.

But something’s got to give.

Florida’s Offensive strengths and weaknesses correspond to Arkansas’s Defensive strengths and weaknesses.

Something’s got to give.

Take your your stats because I only want one.

Razorback Fans have played the statistics game for years when the only ones that matter are points.

…………..Arkansas….Florida
Last 4 Avg…….35………33
Last 3 Avg…….33………26
Last 2 Avg…….46………27

Frankly, I’m glad things are changing. I’ll take the team that scores more points every time.

GO HOGS !!