“We’re the only game scheduled for that time slot. … It’s not just about us, it’s about building the program for years to come, and that’s what we’re working on.” – Bobby Petrino before the Liberty Bowl
11alive.com NBC Affiliate, Atlanta GA linking quotes from the Arkansas Democrat Gazette
Grappling with recruiting and what it means to build a program through this post has brought clarity in some areas.
The Superior Format is Here
Briefly, Jacob’s Recruiting Profile entries are in the superior format to bring you prospect information. Besides being able to get you the information easily and more quickly, unless you subscribe to The Daily Prophet, your printed newspaper won’t have video so you can watch and hear the player. Local television doesn’t have the air time to devote to all of the recruits or to get video quickly. Radio has the time and audio, but you’re left with imagining what the player physically looks like. If you want to know, you don’t have to guess about any of it here. It’s Clear.
Bobby Petrino and Math
(Don’t let your eyes glaze over! This won’t be overly technical.)
Everything in Bobby Petrino’s football “philosophy” has some grounding in mathematical precision.
He’s been described as a “gambler” but knowing math takes much of the gamble out of “gambling.” If your opponent’s defense lines up to stop the run 92% of the time on 4th and 1, then where’s the gamble in sending receivers on a pass play?
The odds (or ratio of successful to unsuccessful plays) favor having no defensive player around the person who has the ball.
Change the area of math for a moment. Think about “angle and direction” of Bobby Petrino’s “spread” offense and then think of Gus Malzahn’s spread offense or some of the plays Houston Nutt used to run. Before anything else, Petrino’s plays are first “forward” before they are side-to-side. This isn’t referring to long passes. Numerous passes, regardless of the route the receiver takes, are between or around the hash marks. Outside passes are down the field. Runners hit the line squarely. Pitch outs and sweeps are rare while passes in the flats or swing passes aren’t favored.
Quite simply, the shortest distance between the ball before the play starts and the goal line, or from the quarterback to the receiver, is the same as for any two points, a straight line. Petrino’s players move forward first. It’s the “straight-ahead spread.”
Practices are in 5 minute modules. Stretching comes before practice, and practice is conducted at a swift pace.
It’s a matter of efficient use of time.
Petrino has repeatedly addressed the issue of running backs by committee as it relates to “keeping the players happy” or “getting them minutes.” How many times does this issue need to be missed? While that’s part of it, the differences in abilities of 4 or 5 backs greatly increases the number of combinations defensive coaches must prepare their teams for over the course of a week and greatly increases the adjustments defensive players must make. They have to shift gears from Broderick Green pounding the ball to Dennis Johnson leaving them in the dust or Ronnie Wingo slicing in between them. It’s why McFadden and Jones were the most dangerous combination in the history of college football. 4 or 5 backs means that no one or two backs are going to carry the entire load.
Here, combinations and diversification of risk are the math.
An Exercise in Building a Reloading Team
Stepping back for a moment from the Arkansas Razorback Football team as it is, let’s use a smidgen of math to building an even, uniform program which isn’t necessarily grounded in reality. The Razorback Program has 85 scholarship players at any one time to cover all players and all classes. Ideally, all players would stay for four years. Further, if we shorted ourselves one scholarship to 84, then the numbers become even. In each ideal year we could have 21 recruits who sign and make it to campus leaving us with classes which look like this every year:
SR……….JR……….SO……….FR
21……….21……….21………..21
It would be better looked at in terms of eligibility.
Years Remaining
.1………..2…………3…………4
21……….21……….21………..21
21 scholarships isn’t enough to recruit players for every position on the field every year. We’d need at least 22 scholarships plus some for specialty players including kickers, punters, and deep snappers to fill out any year’s roster.
Taking it a step further toward a details of a uniform, even situation, looking at the Arkansas’ 2009 Football Roster on ArkansasRazorbacks.com, you’ll find more than 10 different offensive and defensive positions listed. For this post I’ve combined the positions into 10 which include quarterback (QB), running back (RB), wide receiver (WR), tight end (TE), offensive lineman (OL), defensive lineman (DL), cornerback (CB), generic defensive back (DB), linebacker (LB), and safety (S).
If the recruiting were accomplished uniformly by a position’s use on the field, then each class would have about the following numbers of players per position:
Years Remaining of Eligibility
………..1………..2…………3…………4
……….20……….22……….20………..22
QB……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
RB……..1…………2………..1…………2……6
TE……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
WR…….2…………3………..2…………3……10
OL……..5…………4………..5…………4……18
DL……..4…………5………..4…………5……18
CB……..2…………2………..2…………2……8
DB……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
LB……..2…………2…………2…………2……8
S………1…………1…………1…………1……4
Total Scholarships…..84
Frequently Petrino’s offense alternates between 2 running backs and 2 wide receivers or 1 running back and 3 wide receivers. Alternating numbers simply splits the difference as done on the field. Most of the positions go to linemen so they alternate as well to even out the numbers.
The point of all this is not to sell you the idea that Bobby Petrino is headed toward the distribution above. It’s to illustrate that not only are all positions filled but that they are filled for each year in the future.
The true ideal is for Arkansas to reload each year which brings us to the unobvious math behind this year’s recruiting for years to come.
The Unobvious Math in Recruiting
The obvious math deals with size, speed and strength which no coaching staff ignores. Do you remember Bobby Petrino’s “math” comments about last year’s recruiting class?
“I’m talking about getting taller and getting longer and faster on defense.” Coach Petrino Signing Day Press Conference Quotes, ArkansasRazorbacks.com, February 4, 2009, referring to Anthony Leon
But if you believe about recruiting that “it’s about building the program for years to come,” then recruits are pieces of the team for years to come. Bobby Petrino’s object is to have a team just as strong or stronger 2 years, 3 years and 4 years from now.
Most of the analysts look at a team’s needs for next year. If any of this has any validity at all, we aren’t dealing with next year, and for the most part, neither will this recruiting class!
Looking back at the Arkansas Roster referenced above, you’ll find 107 players who have at least one year of eligibility remaining for the 2010 Season, not accounting for any of the players who’ve recently left. They only matter marginally for this post. Plainly, many (about 45 or so) are not scholarship players. They break down by position this way:
QB……6
RB……9
WR…..17
TE……4
OL……19
Offensive Players = 55
DL……11
CB……9
DB……7
LB…….8
S……..6
Defensive Players = 41
K……..4
P……..2
SNP….5
Specialty Players = 11
Although this does show a disparity in the offensive and defensive players, it’s not the purpose here to question the difference.
In terms of the numbers of players by the players’ eligibility remaining by position:
Eligibility Remaining
……..1……2……3
QB…..0……2……4
RB…..1……4……4
WR…..2…..5……10
TE…..2……0……2
OL…..5……4……10
DL…..3……3…….5
CB…..3……3…….3
DB…..2……0…….5
LB…..4……1…….3
S……3……3…….0
K……1…….0……3
P……1…….0……1
SNP…1……2…….2
Positions where players are finishing eligibility next year with no players following them in the next class are at tight end, generic defensive back, kicker and punter.
Positions where players are finishing eligibility next year with only one player following them in the next class are at linebacker.
As between two and three years of eligibility remaining, only the safety position has no players with 3 years of eligibility remaining.
Sometimes positions need to be recruited because the players aren’t earning playing time even on a rotating basis, but this is something to be confirmed during the course of the next year. In terms of the numbers of games played last year collectively by all players at a position by players’ eligibility remaining by position:
Eligibility Remaining
……..1……2……3
QB…..0…..13…..10
RB…..12….36…..26
WR….13….48…..13
TE…..26…..0……8
OL…..51….26…..19
DL…..26….36……36
CB…..23….18……0
DB…..26…..0……28
LB…..19…..13…..25
S……26…..37……0
K……13……0……8
P…….2…….0…..12
SNP…13……0……0
You can see the zeros on the board.
Tight end remains a concern with only 8 games of experience between the 2 players with 2 and 3 years of eligibility remaining.
No player with 3 years of eligibility remaining at cornerback or safety made it on the field last year which is somewhat understandable, but there was some mop-up work last year.
While experience at kicker doesn’t translate necessarily to more field goals or points, little experience follows Tejada.
It’s difficult to know what to make of the receiving corps with 3 years of eligibility remaining. Ten of them last year played in a total of 13 games.
The math is a matter of distribution not simply across the offensive and defensive squads but across the ranges of eligibility by position as well. There is little doubt that the mathematician Bobby Petrino is well aware the distribution of players across positions and eligibility.
The “Zeros” can be worked out with the classes ahead of them and the ones behind, but if there’s going to be movement away from the eligibility gaps at positions, it’s reasonable to think that Bobby Petrino will continue to recruit at least the “uniform” number of players at the positions where the Razorbacks are long on players so as to avoid the eligibility gaps in the future. Of course, the same could be accomplished with red-shirt years for some players who needed the year of development. As examples of this you would still expect some wide receivers and offensive linemen to be recruited despite 10 players with 3 years of eligibility in each class remaining.
However, some areas plainly need work. The safety position includes both strong safety and free safety and has no players listed with 3 years of eligibility remaining. Numbers wise, some of those listed as defensive back may be used in the safety position, but they all have one year of experience. The linebacker corps has been thin since Petrino arrived on campus. After 2010 the group will be halved. Further the generic designation of defensive back, although it has 5 with 3 years of eligibility remaining, there are none to borrow for the linebackers with 2 years of eligibility remaining.
The defensive line, which includes defensive end, currently has 11 players to fill 4-5 positions. It would be nice to see 5-6 recruits here.
In a matter of a couple of weeks, when you go to look at Arkansas’s recruiting class, remember these wrinkles which need to be ironed out, look at Jacob’s posts, and you’ll know whether the 2010 Recruiting Class was a good one for yourself!
You’ll have some perspective on the program Bobby Petrino is building.
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